A Misleading Headline Figure

In the first quarter of 2026, average transaction prices in Amsterdam fell by 5.8% compared to the final three months of 2025 — more than double the national decline of 2.7%. That gap has understandably attracted attention. But reading that figure in isolation gives a deeply distorted view of the market.

Seasonality alone explains part of the picture. First-quarter prices in Amsterdam have consistently underperformed fourth-quarter figures over at least the past five years, with an average gap of around 1.2%. Winter transactions tend to attract different sellers and buyers than the autumn market. That baseline effect is real, and it is built into every Q1 comparison.

Uitponding: The Structural Force Skewing the Numbers

To understand the full magnitude of Amsterdam's price dip, you need to grasp a phenomenon specific to the Dutch housing market: uitponding. This refers to the mass exit of private buy-to-let investors selling off their rental properties — typically smaller, older apartments — following a series of government measures tightening the fiscal treatment of rental income and reinforcing tenant protections. The result: a flood of budget-priced, smaller units entering the for-sale market simultaneously, dragging the overall average transaction price sharply downward.

The MVA confirmed in its April report that this quarter saw a notably higher share of small apartments and homes requiring renovation entering the market. The composition of what sold was simply different from previous quarters. Comparing average prices across differently composed batches of properties produces a statistical artefact — not a genuine signal of underlying value change.

MVA president Floris van der Peijl added another layer to the picture, pointing to the effect of higher mortgage rates and recent international economic uncertainty on buyer confidence — a macro backdrop that has made households across the Netherlands more cautious about committing to large purchases.

Expert Advice is Your Best Insurance

⚠️ Important Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for general guidance only and does not constitute legal or financial advice. Each lease file is unique and depends on the original signature date and specific municipal zone.

Before making any purchase decision or signing a conversion offer, we strongly advise you to consult the following professionals:

• A Notary (Notaris): The only professional authorized to execute or modify lease deeds in the Netherlands.

• A Mortgage Advisor (Hypotheekadviseur): To assess how the lease fee impacts your borrowing capacity.

• A Real Estate Lawyer: In case of disputes or contested calculations with the municipality.

• An Erfpacht Expert/Consultant: For a full technical audit of your specific contract clauses.

Even though official websites are often only available in Dutch, they remain the only valid legal evidence. You may consult them as follows:

• Sources and References

  1. RaboResearch — Stefan Groot & Carola de Groot. Quarterly Housing Market Report: house prices rise modestly this year. rabobank.nl, 12 March 2026.

  2. CBS / Kadaster. Dutch residential real estate transaction statistics. cbs.nl, 2025-2026.

  3. NVM. Housing market analysis — Q4 2025. nvm.nl, 2026.

  4. ABF Research & Capital Value. Housing shortage in the Netherlands: 410,000 units in 2026. capitalvalue.nl, 2026.

  5. Funda.nl. Funda Index — Purchase intention barometer, Q4 2025. funda.nl, 2025.

  6. TU Delft / VEH. Eigen Huis Marktindicator — Buyer sentiment index. tudelft.nl, 2026.

  7. RaboResearch. Economic Quarterly Report — Growth outlook and macroeconomic risks. rabobank.nl, March 2026.

V. Wages, interest rates and your housing budget: the numbers that matter

For an expat, your housing budget is not just a question of gross rent. Two macroeconomic dynamics directly influence your borrowing capacity or rental eligibility in 2026.

Wages continue to rise

RaboResearch economists forecast an average wage increase of 4.2% in 2026 (based on Dutch collective labour agreements), followed by 3.6% in 2027. For a dual-income household at two median salaries, this translates into roughly €17,500 more in maximum mortgage borrowing capacity this year compared to 2025, and a further €15,500 in 2027. Rising salaries are one of the structural drivers keeping demand — and prices — elevated.

Interest rates: stable but edging up

Mortgage rates remain at manageable levels in 2026. Ten-year capital market rates — the key indicator for Dutch mortgage rates — are expected to rise by approximately 0.3 percentage points by end of 2027. This is a far more contained movement than the 2.2 percentage point spike seen in 2022, and its impact on maximum borrowing capacity will be limited. For an expat benefiting from the 30% ruling, borrowing capacity is mechanically higher than an equivalent profile without the tax advantage.

The 30% ruling and your housing budget

The 30% ruling significantly increases your real net income. Dutch banks calculate mortgage capacity based on your gross taxable salary — not the tax-free portion. For an expat considering buying in Amsterdam, it is essential to have your maximum borrowing capacity calculated by a financial adviser who understands this specific mechanism. The difference can be substantial. → Read our complete guide to the 30% ruling

Amsterdam Housing Market 2026 :
what every expat needs to know before signing

Just arrived in Amsterdam or preparing your move to the Netherlands? The Dutch housing market is going through an unusual phase in 2026: price growth is slowing noticeably, the supply of available properties has increased, and yet the structural shortage remains massive. For an expat looking to rent or buy, understanding these dynamics can make a difference of tens of thousands of euros.

Price per Square Metre: The Indicator That Actually Matters

Strip out the composition effect and look at price per square metre — the measure that normalises for unit size and quality — and the narrative reverses. Amsterdam's price per square metre rose 1.8% year-on-year to €8,344/m², one of the highest levels recorded in the city's history and among the most expensive in Northern Europe.

The MVA put it plainly in its communiqué: "The total price tag of a house is sometimes somewhat lower, but you still pay a high amount per square metre compared to the rest of the Netherlands." The sticker price may look more manageable; the cost per centimetre has gone up regardless.

A structural note worth keeping in mind: approximately 89% of all residential transactions in Amsterdam involve apartments. Any shift in the average size or quality of apartments sold therefore has an outsized impact on citywide averages — which is precisely what happened this quarter.

IV. 2027: the rebound ahead, and what it means for you

If 2026 offers a window of relative calm, 2027 is expected to mark a return to stronger price growth: RaboResearch forecasts an average increase of 4.1% for that year. Two factors drive this expected rebound:

• The wave of former rental property sales will be largely exhausted, reducing the available supply on the market.

• New construction output is also expected to fall back after 2026, despite the government's ambitious targets.

New construction remains one of the market's most persistent pain points. The government's stated goal is 100,000 new homes per year, but actual delivery figures have stagnated around 69,000 since 2024. The obstacles are structural: a chronic labour shortage in the construction sector, strict environmental regulations (nitrogen quotas), grid congestion, and building timelines that keep stretching, currently averaging 2.4 years from permit to handover, versus 1.7 years a decade ago.

The good news: 97,000 homes currently under construction.

The Netherlands has never had this many homes simultaneously under construction. A portion of these deliveries is expected in 2026, which will temporarily add supply and ease pressure on the market. However, this will not close the structural deficit estimated at 410,000 homesnationwide, underlining the long-term upward pressure on both rents and prices.

FAQ Common questions from expats about Amsterdam's housing market

Should I buy or rent in Amsterdam in 2026?

It depends on your time horizon. If you plan to stay for fewer than three years, renting remains the most flexible and financially sensible option. If you are settling for five years or more, buying deserves serious consideration: Amsterdam prices, while high, are expected to resume stronger growth in 2027, and the 30% ruling can significantly improve your mortgage eligibility.

Is this a good time to look for a rental apartment in Amsterdam?

2026 is indeed a relatively favourable period for renters compared to 2023-2024, with more properties available. However, the market remains very tight: quality apartments in central Amsterdam neighbourhoods are typically gone within days of listing. Do not underestimate the importance of being well-accompanied and moving fast when the right property comes up.

Are Amsterdam rents following the same trend as purchase prices?

Not exactly. The 2024 rental regulation has capped rents in the mid-market segment (between social housing and the free private market), which has pushed some landlords to sell rather than rent. In the free private segment — broadly, rents above approximately €1,100/month — prices remain on an upward trajectory, driven by sustained expat demand and a shrinking stock of available properties.

Which Amsterdam neighbourhoods still offer reasonable value?

Amsterdam Noord, Nieuw-West and parts of Zuidoost remain more accessible than central neighbourhoods. For expats on a controlled budget, satellite towns like Amstelveen, Zaandam and Diemen are worth exploring seriously — they offer modern housing stock, good transport connections into central Amsterdam, and price levels that are meaningfully lower than anything intramuros.

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