I. Why prices are finally slowing down in 2026

After years of overheating, the Dutch housing market is taking a pause in 2026. Economists at RaboResearch forecast an average price increase of 3.1% this year, compared to 8.6% in 2025 and nearly 12% at the peak of growth in late 2024. In January 2026, existing owner-occupied homes were on average 5.4% more expensive than a year earlier — still a significant number in absolute terms, but a genuine turning point compared to the frenzy of recent years.

For an expat arriving in Amsterdam, this slowdown is relatively good news: competitive pressure between buyers is easing slightly, and average selling times are edging up — even if only marginally. The market remains tight, but it has room to breathe.

What this means in practice

A buyer in January 2026 was still paying on average €25,000 more than someone who bought a comparable home a year earlier. That is a demanding market — but clearly less intense than 2024, when systematic overbidding was the norm in virtually every Amsterdam neighbourhood.

II. The wave of new listings: a temporary window to seize

The main explanation for this slowdown is structural: since 2024, institutional and private investors have been selling their rental properties to owner-occupiers at an unprecedented rate. In 2025 alone, 36,000 properties changed hands this way — former rental units converted into owner-occupied homes. This represents more than 15% of all transactions for the year. On Funda, the Netherlands' main property platform, available listings increased by approximately 20% compared to a year earlier.

Why this wave? The rental regulation law that came into force on 1 July 2024 made renting out properties significantly less profitable for many small investors, who now prefer to sell rather than lock a property under regulated rent conditions. This dynamic is temporarily inflating supply — and that is precisely what is putting the brakes on price growth.

This window is closing RaboResearch economists expect this wave of sales to reach its peak in the first half of 2026, before gradually drying up. Temporary rental contracts — capped at two years since July 2024 — are expiring: once sold, these properties will not return to the rental market. Supply should therefore shrink noticeably in 2027 — and prices are expected to accelerate again alongside it.

Expert Advice is Your Best Insurance

⚠️ Important Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for general guidance only and does not constitute legal or financial advice. Each lease file is unique and depends on the original signature date and specific municipal zone.

Before making any purchase decision or signing a conversion offer, we strongly advise you to consult the following professionals:

• A Notary (Notaris): The only professional authorized to execute or modify lease deeds in the Netherlands.

• A Mortgage Advisor (Hypotheekadviseur): To assess how the lease fee impacts your borrowing capacity.

• A Real Estate Lawyer: In case of disputes or contested calculations with the municipality.

• An Erfpacht Expert/Consultant: For a full technical audit of your specific contract clauses.

Even though official websites are often only available in Dutch, they remain the only valid legal evidence. You may consult them as follows:

• Sources and References

  1. RaboResearch — Stefan Groot & Carola de Groot. Quarterly Housing Market Report: house prices rise modestly this year. rabobank.nl, 12 March 2026.

  2. CBS / Kadaster. Dutch residential real estate transaction statistics. cbs.nl, 2025-2026.

  3. NVM. Housing market analysis — Q4 2025. nvm.nl, 2026.

  4. ABF Research & Capital Value. Housing shortage in the Netherlands: 410,000 units in 2026. capitalvalue.nl, 2026.

  5. Funda.nl. Funda Index — Purchase intention barometer, Q4 2025. funda.nl, 2025.

  6. TU Delft / VEH. Eigen Huis Marktindicator — Buyer sentiment index. tudelft.nl, 2026.

  7. RaboResearch. Economic Quarterly Report — Growth outlook and macroeconomic risks. rabobank.nl, March 2026.

V. Wages, interest rates and your housing budget: the numbers that matter

For an expat, your housing budget is not just a question of gross rent. Two macroeconomic dynamics directly influence your borrowing capacity or rental eligibility in 2026.

Wages continue to rise

RaboResearch economists forecast an average wage increase of 4.2% in 2026 (based on Dutch collective labour agreements), followed by 3.6% in 2027. For a dual-income household at two median salaries, this translates into roughly €17,500 more in maximum mortgage borrowing capacity this year compared to 2025, and a further €15,500 in 2027. Rising salaries are one of the structural drivers keeping demand — and prices — elevated.

Interest rates: stable but edging up

Mortgage rates remain at manageable levels in 2026. Ten-year capital market rates — the key indicator for Dutch mortgage rates — are expected to rise by approximately 0.3 percentage points by end of 2027. This is a far more contained movement than the 2.2 percentage point spike seen in 2022, and its impact on maximum borrowing capacity will be limited. For an expat benefiting from the 30% ruling, borrowing capacity is mechanically higher than an equivalent profile without the tax advantage.

The 30% ruling and your housing budget

The 30% ruling significantly increases your real net income. Dutch banks calculate mortgage capacity based on your gross taxable salary — not the tax-free portion. For an expat considering buying in Amsterdam, it is essential to have your maximum borrowing capacity calculated by a financial adviser who understands this specific mechanism. The difference can be substantial. → Read our complete guide to the 30% ruling

Amsterdam Housing Market 2026 :
what every expat needs to know before signing

Just arrived in Amsterdam or preparing your move to the Netherlands? The Dutch housing market is going through an unusual phase in 2026: price growth is slowing noticeably, the supply of available properties has increased, and yet the structural shortage remains massive. For an expat looking to rent or buy, understanding these dynamics can make a difference of tens of thousands of euros.

III. Amsterdam: a market in its own league

Amsterdam does not follow the national trend exactly, and understanding this distinction is critical for any expat looking to settle there. In 2025, while prices rose by 8.6% on average across the Netherlands, Amsterdam's growth was just 4.3%, nearly half the national rate. The city has already reached price levels so high that the margin for further growth is more limited than elsewhere.

What is striking is that the price gap between Amsterdam and the Dutch periphery is narrowing for the first time in years. At the end of 2025, the median price difference stood at €173,000, down from €199,000 a year earlier. Amsterdam remains the most expensive city in the country, but other regions (Groningen, Friesland, Twente) are catching up fast.

What this means for expats

If your employer is based in Amsterdam but does not require you to live within the city itself, towns likeHaarlem, Amstelveen, Zaandam or Almereoffer significantly better value for money, with direct transport links into Amsterdam. Price per m² there runs 30 to 50% below Amsterdam levels, worth considering seriously before committing to an intramuros address.

IV. 2027: the rebound ahead, and what it means for you

If 2026 offers a window of relative calm, 2027 is expected to mark a return to stronger price growth: RaboResearch forecasts an average increase of 4.1% for that year. Two factors drive this expected rebound:

• The wave of former rental property sales will be largely exhausted, reducing the available supply on the market.

• New construction output is also expected to fall back after 2026, despite the government's ambitious targets.

New construction remains one of the market's most persistent pain points. The government's stated goal is 100,000 new homes per year, but actual delivery figures have stagnated around 69,000 since 2024. The obstacles are structural: a chronic labour shortage in the construction sector, strict environmental regulations (nitrogen quotas), grid congestion, and building timelines that keep stretching, currently averaging 2.4 years from permit to handover, versus 1.7 years a decade ago.

The good news: 97,000 homes currently under construction.

The Netherlands has never had this many homes simultaneously under construction. A portion of these deliveries is expected in 2026, which will temporarily add supply and ease pressure on the market. However, this will not close the structural deficit estimated at 410,000 homesnationwide, underlining the long-term upward pressure on both rents and prices.

FAQ Common questions from expats about Amsterdam's housing market

Should I buy or rent in Amsterdam in 2026?

It depends on your time horizon. If you plan to stay for fewer than three years, renting remains the most flexible and financially sensible option. If you are settling for five years or more, buying deserves serious consideration: Amsterdam prices, while high, are expected to resume stronger growth in 2027, and the 30% ruling can significantly improve your mortgage eligibility.

Is this a good time to look for a rental apartment in Amsterdam?

2026 is indeed a relatively favourable period for renters compared to 2023-2024, with more properties available. However, the market remains very tight: quality apartments in central Amsterdam neighbourhoods are typically gone within days of listing. Do not underestimate the importance of being well-accompanied and moving fast when the right property comes up.

Are Amsterdam rents following the same trend as purchase prices?

Not exactly. The 2024 rental regulation has capped rents in the mid-market segment (between social housing and the free private market), which has pushed some landlords to sell rather than rent. In the free private segment — broadly, rents above approximately €1,100/month — prices remain on an upward trajectory, driven by sustained expat demand and a shrinking stock of available properties.

Which Amsterdam neighbourhoods still offer reasonable value?

Amsterdam Noord, Nieuw-West and parts of Zuidoost remain more accessible than central neighbourhoods. For expats on a controlled budget, satellite towns like Amstelveen, Zaandam and Diemen are worth exploring seriously — they offer modern housing stock, good transport connections into central Amsterdam, and price levels that are meaningfully lower than anything intramuros.

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Amsterdam life