Dutch Housing Market: 2026 Analysis and Strategic Outlook

2025 concluded with a remarkable performance, characterized by an estimated 8.6% increase in house prices and a record-breaking 239,000 transactions. At Amsterdam Apartment Advice (AAA), we observe that despite global economic uncertainties, Dutch real estate remains a premier safe-haven asset. As we move into 2026, the market is entering a transition phase where robust income growth and a structural supply shortage continue to outweigh the impact of slightly rising interest rates.

Price Forecasts: What to Expect in 2026 and 2027

According to Mike Langen, Senior Housing Economist at ABN AMRO, the market is expected to settle into a more "normalized" growth pattern following the recent surges:

• Projected Growth: House prices are forecast to rise by 3% in 2026 and 4% in 2027.

• Economic Fundamentals: The Dutch economy remains healthy, with a projected growth of 1.2% in 2026, consistently outperforming the Eurozone average.

• Household Purchasing Power: The primary driver of demand is the sustained growth in real wages. With inflation expected to ease to 2.4% in 2026, households will have more capital to allocate toward housing.

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The Housing Shortage: A Structural Supply-Demand Gap

The most significant challenge facing the market remains the chronic lack of supply. While the government aims to deliver 100,000 new homes annually, the reality on the ground remains complex.

• Construction Slowdown: There has been a downward trend in new housing completions since 2023.

• Operational Bottlenecks: Delays are primarily driven by labor shortages, power grid congestion, nitrogen emission regulations, and lengthy planning permissions.

• Market Liquidity: This scarcity limits mobility, as current homeowners are often reluctant to sell without the certainty of finding a suitable new property, leading to a projected slight decrease in transaction volumes in 2026 and 2027.

Financing and Mortgage Trends: The End of Rate Stagnation

Financing conditions are shifting. After a relatively stable 2025, during which 10-year fixed rates hovered around 3.5%, we are seeing a slight upward trajectory.

• Correlation with Government Bonds: Mortgage rates are trending upward in alignment with 10-year Dutch government bond yields.

• Lender Margins: Having already compressed their margins to absorb previous rate hikes, banks are now passing these increases directly to borrowers.

• Strategic Planning: We anticipate that financing costs will remain slightly elevated throughout the next 24 months.

A Year of Calculated Opportunities

2026 is set to be a year of steady, moderate growth. The fundamental imbalance between high demand and low supply serves as a safeguard for the long-term value of your real estate investment in the Netherlands.